Sam Wang, who writes the Princeton Election Consortium’s blog entries, has an entry entitled “Congressional predictions I: Senate 59-41, House 258-177″ that is well worth reading. He routinely does a fine job of aggregating data from polls and examining them scientifically.
The voting makeup of next year’s Congress is a simple sum of votes, and therefore poses an easier estimation problem than the Presidential race. Many other sites give just the average estimate. Here I will give a probabilistcally-based analysis that (a) estimates the likelihood of Democrats reaching a supermajority in the Senate, and (b) puts confidence intervals on the estimates. This projection will be updated as the election nears.
Link to Professor Wang’s entry. For other aggregations of polling data, see my earlier entry.
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