With the US election season in full swing, folks are inundated with polls. The teases and headlines report “Candidate A up by 8 points,” “Candidate B closes gap in Region R,” and etc. Of course, the polls are rarely right on the mark and the only polling that really matters in US elections is the polling that is done at official election stations on the first Tuesdays in November.
Still, we US citizens have a lot of interest in the polling done by news and other organizations. Folks sometimes take heart from one survey and dismiss another. These surveys of voters’ views vary not just in the outcomes they predict, but also in the methods the employ in making those predictions. That variation encourages me to look at multiple polls rather than simply seeking one that I consider the best or, even worse, sticking to one that reports outcomes that align with my hopes.
Hence, I’ve been scouring the Internet for sites that report multiple polling data. I’m seeking a view that is abstracted a step from the individual poll. Here’s a list of the sites reporting aggregate data that I’ve found so far. Do you know of others? Please tell!
- National Public Radio’s election map (uses Real Clear Politics);
- The New York Times’ Who’s Ahead map;
- The Los Angeles Times’ electoral map;
- CNN’s Poll of Polls;
- MSNBC’s election map (select “latest polling”);
- Real Clear Politics
- Five Thirty Eight
- 270 to Win
- Pollster, and
- The Princeton Election Consortium offers what it calls “A first draft of electoral history” that provides up-to-date projections based on a weighted average of multiple data sources. Check this one; it’s my fave.
Update 7 October
- Political Maps has many different takes on not just the electoral vote, but also other matters (e.g., donors) of interest; there are also links to many other sources of maps.
- David Terr’s President Polls 2008 reports current polling data from multiple sources.
- Scott Elliott’s Election Projection offers for-a-fee access to his projections, which he reports are remarkably accurate.
- Karl Rove (yes, that’s correct) has a map that shows the average of telephone polls (no Internet polls).